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  1. (トピック) 日銀が先週27日に公表した展望レポートでは、今後の物価上昇率は急ピッチで上昇を続け、「2018年度頃」には物価目標である2%程度に達するとの見通しが維持された。日銀は黒田総裁就任以降、物価目標の達成期限を5度も後ろ倒ししているが、「6度目の正直」も難しそうだ。もともとの目標水準が高いうえ、いくつものハードルが存在するためだ。主なものとしては、賃上げ動向、将来不安、海外経済動向が挙げられる。よほど強い追い風が吹かない限り18年度頃に物価目標を達成することは困難だろう。過去の日銀の物価見通しの改定状況を見ると、当初2%前後という水準が示された後、当該年度が近づくタイミングで下方修正が入り始め、以降も下方修正が繰り返されるパターンが定着している。今後についても、早ければ今年度後半、遅くとも来年度前半には18年度の物価見通しを引き下げ、目標達成時期を後ろ倒しする事態が予想される。ただし、既に追加緩和余地は乏しいことから、物価目標に向けた「モメンタムは維持されている」として、現行の金融政策を粛々と続けるという展開が続きそうだ。なお、これまでの大規模緩和の結果、日銀の総資産のGDP比は既に主要国で突出した規模に膨らんでいる。このことは、将来日銀に多大な損失が発生するリスクも膨らんでいることを示している。つまり、現行の大規模な金融緩和を続ければ続けるほど、将来の収束、すなわち出口戦略のハードルも高まっていくという難題を日銀は抱えている。日銀は出口戦略の説明を避け続けているが、今後も出口への市場の不安は解消されるどころかますます高まっていく恐れがある。事前の十分な市場との対話が求められる。もっと詳しく

(Topic) In the outlook report released by the Bank of Japan last week, the prospects that the inflation rate will continue to rise rapidly and that the price targets of around 2% will be maintained around “2018” It was. The BOJ has overtaken the deadline of price targets five degrees behind since taking office as Kuroda, but “the sixth honest” seems to be difficult as well. It is because the original target level is high and there are several hurdles. Major items include wage trends, future concerns and overseas economic trends. It will be difficult to achieve the price targets around the fiscal year 18 unless so strong wind blows. Looking at the revision of the Bank of Japan’s price forecasts in the past, after the level of around 2% was initially indicated, the downward revision starts to enter at the timing when the fiscal year is approaching, . As for the future as well, it is expected that as early as the latter half of this fiscal year, lower the price forecast of 2006 in the first half of the next fiscal year at the latest, the situation will be beaten the target achievement timing backwards. However, as there is already little room for additional mitigation, it seems that development will continue so that the current monetary policy will be kept silent as “momentum is maintained for price targets”. As a result of the large-scale relaxation so far, the ratio of the BOJ’s total assets to the GDP has expanded to a prominent extent in major countries. This indicates that the risk of significant losses occurring in the Bank of Japan in the future is also growing. In other words, as the current large-scale monetary easing continues, the Bank of Japan has the challenge of increasing convergence in the future, that is, the hurdle of exit strategies. The Bank of Japan continues to avoid explaining the exit strategy, but in the future there will be concerns that market anxiety to the exit will not only be resolved, but will continue to rise. Dialogue with adequate market in advance is required.